Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4765 · DEN → PHX
departs 4:05 PM MT · arrives 5:14 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.