Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4827 · MCI → DEN
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 9:32 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.