Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4994 · DFW → MSY
departs 2:53 PM CT · arrives 4:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.