Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ICELANDAIR · FLIGHT FI 614 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

FI 614 · JFK → KEF

departs 8:47 PM ET · arrives 6:00 AM GMT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at KEF more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KEF?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Arrivals into KEF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KEF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 614 · JFK → KEF

Odds over time

How late will it get to KEF?