Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ICELANDAIR · FLIGHT FI 853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

FI 853 · KEF → ORD

departs 4:24 PM GMT · arrives 5:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KEF

Weather at each end

KEF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 853 · KEF → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?