Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
G4 2164 · IWA → GRR
departs 8:26 PM MSK · arrives 5:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IWA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
↓
IWA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IWA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.