Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 2206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
G4 2206 · GRR → SFB
departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFB?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SFB at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFB (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.