Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
G4 404 · SRQ → CVG
departs 8:41 PM ET · arrives 11:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
SRQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CVG (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.