Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
G4 4411 · TUP → AUS
departs 4:54 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±1 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave TUP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUP
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TUP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.