Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
G4 845 · SRQ → LEX
departs 6:24 PM ET · arrives 8:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SRQ are often late
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SRQ
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LEX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.