Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 86
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
G4 86 · MRY → LAS
departs 3:40 PM PT · arrives 5:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.