Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

KOREAN AIR · FLIGHT KE 274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

KE 274 · LAX → ICN

departs 3:45 PM PT · arrives 8:35 PM KST

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICN?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ ICN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KE 274 · LAX → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?