Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

KOREAN AIR · FLIGHT KE 38 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

KE 38 · ORD → ICN

departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM KST

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into ICN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KE 38 · ORD → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?