Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 403
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
LH 403 · EWR → FRA
departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 6:10 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 29%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
LH's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.