Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
LH 409 · RDU → FRA
departs 3:53 PM ET · arrives 4:51 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at FRA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FRA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
3pm departures from RDU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Arrivals into FRA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FRA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.