Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
LH 411 · JFK → MUC
departs 5:39 PM ET · arrives 6:27 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MUC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MUC?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MUC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.