Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 413
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
LH 413 · EWR → MUC
departs 8:49 PM ET · arrives 9:07 AM CET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 29%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MUC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MUC?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
8pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
LH's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MUC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.