Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
LH 466 · MUC → SAN
departs 12:39 PM CET · arrives 4:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MUC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
MUC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.