Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3347
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3347 · MHK → PHX
departs 3:09 PM CT · arrives 4:03 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MHK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at MHK that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
Weather at each end
MHK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.19 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.