Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3407 · ABI → DFW
departs 10:34 AM CT · arrives 11:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ABI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at ABI that day
↑
Other factors
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
10am departures from ABI are usually not late
Weather at each end
ABI (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.58 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.