Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3431 · DFW → CLL
departs 10:55 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CLL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
CLL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,533 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip none
CLL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.