Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3443
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3443 · ROC → ORD
departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 4:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 40%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
3pm departures from ROC are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.