Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3458 · ORD → CID
departs 6:13 PM CT · arrives 7:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CID
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
CID usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CID (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.