Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3469 · DFW → MAF
departs 11:03 AM CT · arrives 12:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MAF that day
↑
11am departures from DFW are often late
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Arrivals into MAF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MAF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.