MQ 3513 · FSM → DFW

took off 10:14 AM CT · expected to land 10:53 AM CT (scheduled 10:07 AM CT → 11:21 AM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Fridays in October are usually busier than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSM

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

FSM (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3513 · FSM → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?