Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3521 · BMI → ORD
departs 5:06 AM CT · arrives 6:21 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Wed 10/28 4%
Thu 10/29 4%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 11%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
BMI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.