Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3544
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3544 · PHX → TUL
departs 12:50 PM MT · arrives 5:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
TUL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.