Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3558
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3558 · OMA → ORD
departs 7:48 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from OMA are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.