Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3592
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3592 · PHX → MRY
departs 8:20 PM MT · arrives 10:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
↓
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
MRY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.