Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3597
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3597 · PHX → RDM
departs 9:12 PM MT · arrives 11:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDM more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at RDM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDM?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDM
↓
Arrivals into RDM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
RDM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.