Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3603
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3603 · XNA → DFW
departs 10:24 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.