Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3606
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3606 · ORD → YYZ
departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 12:20 PM EDT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YYZ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.