Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3609 · PHX → CRQ
departs 3:04 PM MT · arrives 8:23 PM -03
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 21%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at CRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CRQ?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
3pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
CRQ usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into CRQ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
CRQ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.