Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3691
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3691 · DFW → ICT
departs 10:26 PM CT · arrives 12:19 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ICT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.