Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3698
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3698 · ORD → ICT
departs 8:44 PM CT · arrives 10:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 43%
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ICT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.