Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3722
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3722 · AUS → DFW
departs 7:01 PM CT · arrives 8:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,533 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.