Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3739
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3739 · ORD → OMA
departs 10:20 AM CT · arrives 12:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OMA that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.