Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3767
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3767 · CRQ → PHX
departs 10:47 PM -03 · arrives 8:04 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave CRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CRQ
↓
10pm departures from CRQ are usually not late
Weather at each end
CRQ (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.