Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3789 · AMA → DFW
departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 8:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
AMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.89 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.