Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3789 · DFW → AMA
departs 5:09 PM CT · arrives 6:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 267 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
AMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.89 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.