Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3820 · DFW → FSD
departs 3:19 PM CT · arrives 5:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into FSD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at FSD that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,867 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.