Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3831 · PHX → SEA
departs 5:28 PM MT · arrives 8:08 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.