Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3835 · MTY → PHX
departs 4:41 PM CST · arrives 6:13 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MTY
Weather at each end
MTY (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.