Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3843 · DFW → MZT
departs 11:12 AM CT · arrives 11:36 AM MST
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MZT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MZT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MZT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MZT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DFW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MZT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Arrivals into MZT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MZT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.