Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3860 · DFW → LBB
departs 6:15 PM CT · arrives 7:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 38%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LBB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LBB?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at LBB that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
LBB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
LBB (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.