Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3874 · PHX → ELP
departs 4:02 PM MT · arrives 6:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
PHX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.