Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3892
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3892 · MZT → PHX
departs 1:11 PM MST · arrives 3:36 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MZT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MZT that day
↓
1pm departures from MZT are usually not late
Weather at each end
MZT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.