Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3900
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3900 · PHX → SBA
departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 6:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.82 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.