Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3900
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3900 · SBA → PHX
departs 6:45 PM PT · arrives 8:21 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.