Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3947
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3947 · PHX → MFE
departs 7:04 PM MT · arrives 11:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE
↓
MFE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.82 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.